Ribut Tropika Sonamu nih dijangkakan sampai ke Malaysia (Kelantan, Terengganu dan Pahang) pada hari ini bermula lewat tengah malam... dan dari aper yang gua dapat maklumat... takder amaran awal tahap jingga yang dikeluarkan kepada semua penduduk di pantai timur... even orang kat Sarawak yang jugak mungkin kena tempiasnya tak tau pasai benda nih...
So... kenaper ianya dirahsiakan oleh Kerajaan... Apa salahnyer amaran jingga dikeluarkan supaya rakyat lebih bersedia menghadapinya... terutama yang duduk berhampiran pantai... Macam rumah gua... walaupun dekat dengan pantai... tapi ader bukit yang menghalangnya...
Gua pernah tengok kesan ribut tropika nih satu masa dulu... Lu ingat tak lagi ribut tropika Greg yang melanda Sabah satu masa dulu... kesannya agak dahsyat... teruk... So... please la... tolong kuarkan amaran jingga wahai pihak yang berkenaan.... tolong aaa.... Orang kat Malaysia nih jarang kena malapetaka dahsyat... diorang tak tau camana nak bersedia... tolong aaa....
Bukan la gua nak kata dah semestinya Pantai Timur akan kena dengan Ribut Tropika Sonamu nih... cuma gua rasa Kerajaan Malaysia perlu kuarkan amaran dan nasihat agar elakkan pantai dan bersedia untuk terima kesan Sonamu.... bukan ker bersedia lebih baik dari dah kena....
Rujukan :
1. Cyclocane (Storm Tracker)
2. NASA
3. HurricaneZone
WDPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (SONAMU)
WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (SONAMU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 071433Z ASCAT PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND PGTW RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND THE ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 01W REMAINS IN A MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT (20 TO 30 KNOTS) AND DIFFLUENT FLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE MODERATE (AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TD 01W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 01W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, PREDOMINANTLY CONTROLLED BY THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FLOW. TD 01W WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A LOW- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. TD 01W WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, HIGH VWS AND DECREASING OUTFLOW DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHERN TRACK, BUT SOME MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A TRACK TOWARDS THE MALAYSIAN COAST IF THE STORM CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, AND DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY TAU 36 DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST AIDS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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